China's economic growth(GDP) is below 6% probability event

Nomura Holdings (Nomura) said that next year China's economic growth below 6% probability of 10% -20%. A week ago the bank China 2014 GDP (GDP) growth forecast to 7%.

The bank said that they believe next year China's economic growth is no longer than 6% 5% of the small probability event, the Chinese economy is facing financial leverage, pollution, social tensions, and many other pressures.


Investment banks lowered China's economic growth is expected. Nomura last week, China's GDP growth in 2014 is expected to decrease from 7.5% to 6.9%. Previously published official data showed China's second-quarter economic growth of 7.7% from the first quarter slowed to 7.5%. In contrast, JP Morgan Chase (JP Morgan) and Standard Chartered (Standard Chartered) for next year China's economic growth is expected to 7.7% and 7.2% respectively.

Nomura noted that in this context the riskiest investment market is not even China Asia-Pacific stock markets (a series of weak economic data has led to China's stock market plunge), but those who demand sensitive mining and energy sectors account for a large market weight such as Brazil and the United Kingdom.

The bank said that the next most severe shocks may be metals and mining stocks. In a few years after the outbreak of the economic crisis, due to massive fiscal stimulus measures artificially pushed up China's demand, global mining companies have invested heavily in order to increase productivity. If China needs to slow further in the corresponding time period of these investments will be less likely to continue to profit.